sabato 28 gennaio 2012

After the BRIC, the Carbs

In the beginning was the Brics, the emerging countries. 
Now is the time of Carbs: Canada, Australia, Russia, Brazil and South Africa. Five new potencies where is concentrated between 25 and 90% of the reserves of commodities: platinum, nickel, bauxite, uranium, iron, gold, copper and a number of key raw materials for the planet, including agricultural.
The BRICS coined to Jim O'Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, ten years ago. 

Now is the turn of "Carbs" the copyright belongs to the department of Citigroup Global strategies, which at the beginning of this year released a voluminous report (135 pages) titled "Carbs make you strong".
 It is estimated that in the underground of these five countries are belying  feedstocks, as metals or agriculture, that value 60 trillion (60 thousand billion) of  dollars. 
The flood of money came from commodity motivates the robust growth of all five of these countries. Since 2003 the economies Carbs have changed considerably for the better.Taken altogether, the GDP in dollar equivalents grew by 4% and the ratio of public debt / GDP ratio fell by 10% (while the U.S. rose by 38%): Today the ratio is higher in Russia with 85% and the lowest in Canada with 62 and Brazil with 57%. But, back to Carbs whole, is not over: domestic consumption increased in all five countries a total of 3 times.

The "training" of Carbs is slightly different from that of the Brics, but the two groups are closely interrelated. In the Carbs there is for instance Australia, which always takes advantage of the richness of its ground. Today, China accounts for 37% of exports Australian mining, compared to 5% ten years ago. The demand is such as to generate an investment boom in the industry in Australia: in 2010 alone, mining companies have invested $ 40 billion (U.S.), three times higher than in 2005. And last year the trend has remained unchanged, the Australian Bureau of Resource Economics reported that the same companies have investments in progress for another 140 billion dollars. Within the fifth continent there are sensational cases: Western Australia has become one of the richest regions in the world, zero unemployment.

Carbs are not of course for all roses, there are the ups and downs of the values ​​of the same commodity, at this time seem to all point downwards, according to the bad situation in the Western world. The palladium market, for example, used in catalytic converters and medicine, suddenly became nervous at the end of 2011, after the price was increased by four times since 2008, 200 to $ 800 an ounce. 
And then even the Carbs have to deal with the rating agencies.